ESTIMATES OF FERTILITY AND CHILD MORTALITY IN JOS NORTH LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA, PLATEAU STATE

Abstract

In Nigeria the database for fertility and child mortality are unreliable as a result of poor quality data from vital registration. There is a need to estimate these indicators, not only to assess maternal and child health but also the country’s socio-economic situation. Government policies and millennium development goals are aimed at reducing fertility and child mortality rates. However there is paucity of information needed to track progress in this regard. The aim of the study therefore, was to estimate fertility and child mortality rates in Jos North Local Government Area of Plateau state. A three-stage sampling method was used to select 1212 women. A validated semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect information on the respondents’ socio-demographic characteristics including the number of children born by them. Indirect demographic methods were used to estimate fertility and child mortality rates. The Trussell variant of the Brass P/F ratio technique for fertility and the Trussell variant of the Brass indirect technique for child mortality were employed. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression. The results were compared with the established total fertility of 5.7 children per woman, infant mortality rate and under-five mortality rate of 100 deaths per 1000 births and 201 deaths per 1000 births respectively for the North central geographical zone where the study area is located. Mean age of respondents was 33.4+8.5 years and 86.0% were married. The adjusted total fertility rate was estimated as six children per woman while the adjusted birth rate was 36 births per 1,000 population. Use of modern contraceptives among the respondents was 15.3%. Women who had no formal education, only quranic education and those with primary education were more likely to experience high fertility compared with those who had tertiary education (OR= 2.52, C.I: 1.425-4.456). Women who had ever lost a child (OR= 6.06, C.I: 2.304 – 15.830) and those in polygynous unions (OR=3.01, C.I: 1.61-5.599) were more likely to have high fertility than women who were in monogamous unions and had never experienced of child loss respectively. The adjusted infant mortality rate was 58 deaths per 1,000 births while the under-five mortality rate was 110 deaths per 1,000 births. Women who had reported ever use of contraceptives were less likely to have experienced child loss compared to respondents who had never used contraceptives (OR= 0.503, 0.253-0.998). Respondents who reported having less than five children were less likely to experience child mortality than those who had a parity of five or more (OR= 0.271, C.I 0.128- 0.577). The estimated fertility rate was similar to the established rate for the North Central geopolitical zone while the child mortality rate was relatively lower than the established rate for the zone. Use of the adopted approach to estimating fertility and child mortality should therefore be promoted in the study area because of its relative effectiveness.