HELIGMAN POLLARD MODELLING OF REGIONAL DIFFERENTIAL IN UNDER-FIVE MORTALITY IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Childhood mortality remains an issue of public health concern in Nigeria. Accurate estimates of childhood mortality are useful indices for combating the menace of child mortality in various regions of the country. They are useful in planning, implementation and evaluation of health programmes. Numerous studies have been conducted on provision of childhood mortality estimates in Nigeria using both direct and indirect methods, the use of the Heligman Pollard model have not been extensively documented in Nigeria. Thus, this study provided estimates of childhood mortality for Nigeria and its geopolitical zones using the Heligman Pollard model. Demographic parameters were estimated from Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Information on children ever born and children dead were used for child mortality estimation, while adult mortality was estimated using survival of siblings method. The childhood and adult mortality estimates were linked using the logit life table system. Mortality estimates of the Heligman pollard model were generated by applying the fitted values of probability of death obtained from the life tables into the Heligman pollard model formula. There were regional variations in the levels of infant and under-five mortality in Nigeria. The infant and under-five mortality were highest in the North West and least in South West. There was a downward trend in the survivorship probabilities as age increased. The age patterns of childhood and adult mortality were similar across all regions. The estimated life expectancies varied among the regions with North Central having a life expectancy of 59, North East - 62, North West - 60, South East - 59, South South - 63 and South West - 65. Life expectancy from birth in Nigeria was 58 years. The probability of dying at infancy was 0.075, 0.089 and 0.106 in the northern regions of the country and 0.072, 0.072 and 0.058 in the southern regions respectively. Childhood mortality estimates in Nigeria obtained from the Heligman Pollard model were high, although the pattern of childhood mortality was found to be similar across the regions in Nigeria but variation exists in the childhood mortality estimates. While government should not relent their efforts in alleviating childhood mortality in Nigeria, more attention should be focused on children who live in the North East and North West part of Nigeria.