MODELING PATIENTS ATTENDANCE AT A UNIVERSITY HEALTH CLINIC: A CASE STUDY OF THE JAJA CLINIC, UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN, 2001-2011

Abstract

Attendance at hospitals, clinics and Health Centers are something that cannot be deliberately ignored. They deserve and demand our attention in order to take appropriate steps to minimize those frequent visits. It is of utmost importance for any academic institution like the University of Ibadan to know the pattern of utilization of its health services for effective planning. The data utilization of its health services for effective planning. The data used in this project were the monthly number of patients attended to at the Jaja Clinic, University of Ibadan extracted from the University Of Ibadan Digest Of Statistics. The data spanned over eleven years (January 2001- December 2011) and the total number of patients considered was 230,477. Time series statistical models were built to study the dynamics, trend and predict the future figures. The least squares' models revealed that quarterly increase of 14 patients for students, while the outcome of the analysis showed quarterly decrease of 5, 13, 17 and 20 patients for the senior staff, senior staff dependents, Junior staffs and junior staff dependents respectively. It was equally revealed from the analysis that Students and Senior staff attendance was at the peak during the third quarter of the year, while those of the senior,staff dependants, Junior staff and Junior staff dependants occurred during the second quarter of the year. The analysis revealed marked difference among the attendances of the five categories making use of the health services provided by Jaja clinic as well as their seasonal variation. It is suggested that each category of patient be adequately prepared for in the allocation of resources whenever the need arises.