LEVELS, PATTERNS AND DIFFERENTIALS OF FERTILITY AMONG WOMEN OF REPRODUCTIVE AGES IN NORTHWEST NIGERIA

Abstract

The fertility level in Northwest Nigeria has been persistently high over the years and this level has been found to be the highest in Nigeria. High fertility has negative impact on maternal and child health particularly childhood mortality. There is dearth of information on the reasons for persistently high fertiltty levels in the Northwest region of Nigeria. Therefore, this study determined levels, patterns and differentials of fertility among women of reproductive ages in Northwest Nigeria. This study utilized 2013 nation-wide survey data set on women aged 15-49 years in Northwest Nigeria (n=11,877). The dependent variable was fertility measured by information on full birth history of women as reported in 2013 Nigeria demographic and health survey (NDHS). Brass relational Gompertz model, Coale and Trussel P/F ratio, analysis of variance test, Chi-square test and Generalised linear model negative binomial distribution were employed for analysis. Respondents mean age was 28.7± 9.7years, total fertility rate (TFR) for women in Northwest was using Coale and Trussel P/F ratio was 8.1 births per woman and 7 .3 births per woman using Brass relational Gompertz model, TFR for Northwest rural area was 8.5 births per woman 7.6 births per woman using Brass relational Gompertz model. The fertility level using Gompertz model and Trussell P/F ratio was different. Northwest extent of child bearing was (a=-0.0273, RMSE=l.0482), and higher in the rural (a=0.0079, RMSE=0.343) than urban (a=- 0.1033, RMSE=0.551). Women between ages 45-49 had the highest mean CEB while women between ages 15-19 had the lowest-mean CEB. Women who resides in the rural area had higher mean CEB than those who reside in the urban areas. Women who had sex preference and had more than 5 children were 40.9%, 46% of women with no education had more than 5 children. Women who had their first child below age 18 were 56% and were reported to have had more than 5 children at the time of the survey. Women in urban area who had no child yet were 32%, 17% of the women in rural area had no child while 44% and 33% of the women in rural area and urban area respectively had more than 5 children. The relative inclusive ratio of fertility was higher in the rural area (RR= 0.97 C.I = 0.90-1.05, P>0.05) than in Urban. The major predictors of high fertility in Northwest Nigeria were; age at first birth, current age and religion of women. The level of fertility is high in Northwest Nigeria, and the burden is higher in rural area than urban areas. Improving and modifying existing programmes to reduce fertility among women in Northwest Nigeria may facilitate lower fertility in Northwest Nigeria.