LEVEL AND DIFFERENTIAL OF FERTILITY IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Fertility level serves as an indicator for assessing the level of development, as well as a proxy measure of the extent to which modem contraceptive is used in any society. In Nigeria, the available data on fertility lack credence in terms of quality and completeness. Unfortunately, the robust techniques to estimate fertility indirectly from birth histories of women in Nigeria are lacking. This study examined the level and differentials of fertility in Nigeria. The study was cross-sectional in design and utilized data from the 2003, 2008 and 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The dependent variable was fertility measured by children ever born and birth in the past year. Data was analysed using, descriptive statistics, Chisquare, Poisson regression, Brass P IF ratio, Brass Relational Gompertz Model and the Arriaga Method. This study revealed that the level of fertility in all three surveys ranged between 6.3 and 7.3 using the indirect technique. This estimate was higher than those originally reported by the NDHS for the three surveys. The age location in childbearing for 2003; 2008 and 2013 was 0.056, 0.283 and 0.070 respectively. Factors such as religion, marital status, wealth index, age at first birth, age at first cohabitation and fertility preference were significantly associated with fertility. However, the predictors of fertility were; age of respondents, marital status, education, region, fertility preference, use of anything to delay pregnancy, place of residence, age at first birth and age at first cohabitation. Fertility level was high in Nigeria and the deviation of age location in childbearing was far from the standard. Government should intensify efforts aimed at reducing· fertility in Nigeria. To achieve this, priority should be given to regions with high fertility.